Jutarnji: Biden šalje moćnu petorku da spriječi sukob na Balkanu
Lidere brine i uloga Rusije koja bi već za nekoliko dana mogla, za početak, zadati težak diplomatski udarac ako ne dopusti produljenje mandata misije EUFOR-a u Bosni i Hercegovini, rok je do 5. studenoga.
Ovakva situacija u regiji rezultat je preduge američke odsutnosti i lutanja EU. Sada je nova Bidenova administracija odlučila na Zapadni Balkan vratiti staru iskusnu diplomatsku gardu. Osobe koje o Balkanu znaju gotovo sve, ako je moguće da itko zna sve. Bave se ovom regijom otprije rata, bili su ključni akteri u mirovnim naporima tijekom rata, arhitekti međunarodnih sporazuma za okončanje rata i rješenje sporova. Mnogo su iskusniji od nekih europskih diplomata kojima balkanski političari lako manipuliraju.
Christopher Hill – radio na Daytonu
Joe Biden je odlučio poslati Christophera Hilla za veleposlanika u Beogradu, bez sumnje ključnoj adresi za stabilnost ili nestabilnost regije. Beograd ima utjecaj u svim susjednim državama, od BiH i Kosova do Crne Gore, i samo naivni političari mogu vjerovati da Beograd nema ništa s događajima u tom državama. Hill ima golemo iskustvo s Balkana, ali i šire. Bio je posebni izaslanik za Kosovo tijekom rata, a potom veleposlanik u Skoplju te Iraku. Jedan je od ključnih američkih diplomata koji je uz Richarda Holbrookea postavljao okrive i za Dejtonski mirovni sporazum u BiH i za sporazum o Kosovu u Rambouilletu koji je Beograd odbio i nakon čega je uslijedila NATO-ova intervencija. Osim regije, Hill osobno poznaje mnoge političare, a govori lokalne jezike i makedonski, prenosi Jutarnji.
Jeffrey Hovenier, trenutačno zamjenik ambasadora u Turskoj, imenovan je veleposlanikom na Kosovu. Prije je radio u američkom veleposlanstvu u Zagrebu, a bio je i član međunarodnog tima za pregovore o statusu Kosova. Govori također lokalne jezike. Bez sumnje zna korijene sadašnjih tenzija i kako se odvijala situacija na Balkanu.
U Sarajevu bi novi veleposlanik trebao biti Michael Murphy. Već je bio u prijestolnici Bosne i Hercegovine prije više godina kao posebni savjetnik u veleposlanstvu, a potom je bio i u američkom veleposlanstvu na Kosovu kao vršitelj dužnosti veleposlanika. Specijalnost su mu NATO i strukture sigurnosti u Europi, posebno na Balkanu.
Regija Zapadnog Balkana odavno nije bila tako napeta. Na rubu je sukoba dok se istodobno govori o rješenju preostalih pitanja iz prošlosti i integraciji u EU, piše portal Jutarnji.
Gabriel Escobar je već prije nekoliko mjeseci počeo mandat kao posebni izaslanik za Balkan, iako mu je formalna dužnost “zamjenik pomoćnika državnog tajnika za Europu i Euroaziju”. Donedavno je radio u američkom veleposlanstvu u Beogradu.
A što će EU?
Veliku ulogu na Balkanu će odigrati i James O'Brian, još jedan od iskusnih diplomata iz vremena Madeleine Albright, jedan od autora u sjeni Dejtonskog sporazuma i jedan od ključnih američkih igrača na Balkanu. Nedavno je boravio u Bruxellesu gdje je s predstavnicima EU i NATO-a razgovarao o zajedničkom angažmanu na Balkanu.
Ako uzmemo u obzir da su i predsjednik Biden i državni tajnik Antony Blinken izuzetno dobri poznavatelji regije, možemo
zaključiti da Washington doista sada ima ekipu za rješavanje velikih problema na Balkanu.
No, uspjeh nije zajamčen jer su okolnosti drugačije. EU je podijeljena oko statusa Kosova, pet država članica je više na strani Rusije nego velike većine u EU i NATO-u. Vjerojatno ne postoji dogovor s Rusijom, ali argumenti su im isti, iako je Međunarodni sud pravde u Haagu dao mišljenje da neovisnost Kosova nije u suprotnosti s međunarodnim pravom.
Drugi je problem što EU ne želi jamčiti nedvosmisleno članstvo u EU za države Zapadnog Balkana, a Washington misli da je “članstvo u EU zajednički cilj i glavni motiv za države regije”.
Još će veći izazov biti promjena dvaju drugih igrača, pogotovo kada je riječ o Bosni i Hercegovini. Rusija i Turska imaju veliku ulogu u regiji, a niti jedna od tih država više nije tako pouzdan partner Zapada. Rusija je kao članica Kontakt grupe godinama bila konstruktivan partner u regiji, kao i Turska. No, to su tada bile države koje nisu bile u sukobu sa Zapadom, a sada više nije tako.
Teško da će Rusija biti za to da Zapad uspije na Balkanu, više je vjerovati da će se potruditi da ne bude tako.
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