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CNN: Dolazi globalna energetska kriza

Gradacacki Glas

Astronomski rast cijena prirodnog plina. Vrtoglavi troškovi ugljena. Predviđanje cijene nafte od 100 dolara po barelu. Globalna energetska kriza uzrokovana vremenskim prilikama i ponovnim porastom potražnje postaje sve teža, što izaziva uzbunu uoči zime, kada je potrebno više energije za osvjetljavanje i grijanje domova. Nacionalne vlade diljem svijeta pokušavaju ograničiti utjecaj cijena na potrošače, ali priznaju da možda neće moći spriječiti visoke račune, piše CNN.

Stanje dodatno komplicira sve veći pritisak na nacionalne vlade da ubrzaju tranziciju na čistiju energiju, dok se svjetski lideri pripremaju za ključni summit o klimi u studenom. U Kini su već počele redukcije struje za stanovništvo, dok se u Indiji elektrane međusobno bore za ugljen. Potrošačka društva u Europi pozivaju na zabranu prekida isporuke ako korisnici ne mogu odmah podmiriti ono što duguju.

“Neočekivana kriza u kritičnom trenutku”

“Ovaj cjenovni šok neočekivana je kriza u kritičnom trenutku. Neposredni prioritet trebao bi biti ublažavanje društvenih utjecaja i zaštita ugroženih kućanstava”, rekao je u srijedu visoki predstavnik EU za energetiku Kadri Simson, dodavši kako će EU sljedeći tjedan iznijeti svoje dugoročne politike, prenosi Index.

U Europi se prirodnim plinom sada trguje po 230 dolara po barelu, izraženo u naftnom ekvivalentu, što je porast od 130 posto od početka rujna i više od osam puta iznad cijene u istom razdoblju prošle godine. U istočnoj Aziji cijena prirodnog plina porasla je 85 posto od početka rujna, dostigavši otprilike 204 dolara po barelu. Cijene su u SAD, neto izvozniku prirodnog plina, i dalje bitno niže, ali su ipak skočile na najveću razinu u 13 godina.

“Cijene se hrane strahom od toga kako će izgledati zima”, rekao je Nikos Tsafos, stručnjak za energetiku i geopolitiku u Centru za strateške i međunarodne studije, think tanku iz Washingtona. Smatra da je tjeskoba uzrokovala odvajanje tržišta od osnova ponude i potražnje. Bjesomučna potražnja za prirodnim plinom također povećava cijene ugljena i nafte, koje se u nekim slučajevima mogu koristiti kao zamjene, ali su još štetnije po okoliš i klimu. Indija, koja i dalje iznimno ovisi o ugljenu, izjavila je ovaj tjedan da čak 63 od 135 elektrana na ugljen ima zalihe za manje od dva dana.

Ove okolnosti izazivaju zabrinutost središnjih banaka i ulagača. Rast cijena energije pridonosi inflaciji, koja je i inače bila glavna briga, jer se globalno gospodarstvo pokušava otresti dugotrajnih učinaka covida-19. Dinamika tijekom zime mogla bi pogoršati stvari. Kriza je nastala zbog velikog porasta potražnje za energijom uslijed gospodarskog oporavka od pandemije i pažljivo kalibriranog sustava koji se lako može poremetiti zbog vremenskih događaja ili mehaničkih problema. Neuobičajeno duga i hladna zima početkom ove godine iscrpila je zalihe prirodnog plina u Europi. Rastuća potražnja za energijom ometala je proces opskrbe, što se obično događa tijekom proljeća i ljeta.

Rastu apetiti Kine

Kineski rastući apetit za ukapljenim prirodnim plinom znači da tržišta LNG-a ne mogu popuniti prazninu. Pad izvoza ruskog plina i neobično mirni vjetrovi pogoršali su problem.

“Trenutačni skok cijena energije u Europi uistinu je jedinstven. Nikad dosad cijene energije nisu tako brzo rasle. A tek smo ušli u jesen, temperature su i dalje blage”, rekli su ovaj tjedan svojim klijentima energetski analitičari u banci Société Générale.

Ova dinamika odjekuje globalno. U SAD-u su cijene prirodnog plina porasle za 47 posto od početka kolovoza. Borba za ugljen također izaziva skok cijene koju mnoge europske kompanije moraju platiti za ugljične kredite, kako bi mogle sagorijevati fosilna goriva. Dodatno, energetska kriza potiče cijene nafte, koje su ovog tjedna dosegnule sedmogodišnje vrhunce u SAD-u. Bank of America nedavno je predvidjela da bi hladna zima mogla povisiti cijenu sirove nafte brent, globalno naftnog mjerila, iznad 100 dolara po barelu. Cijene nisu bile toliko visoke od 2014. godine.

Jim Burkhard, koji vodi istraživanje IHS Markita o sirovoj nafti, energiji i mobilnosti, rekao je kako trenutačno ne nazire nikakvo olakšanje: “Izgleda da će ovakvo stanje potrajati kroz cijelu zimu na sjevernoj hemisferi. Ne postoji Saudijska Arabija za plin”, rekao je Burkhard, misleći na jednog dobavljača koji može brzo povećati proizvodnju prirodnog plina.

Što će Rusija?

Rusija bi teoretski mogla pojačati proizvodnju. Société Générale napominje da bi brže odobrenje njemačkih vlasti politički osjetljivog plinovoda Sjeverni tok 2, kojim bi se plin prenosio izravno iz Rusije u Europu, značajno smanjilo stres. U srijedu je ruski predsjednik Vladimir Putin predložio da bi Rusija mogla povećati svoju proizvodnju, rekavši da državni plinski gigant Gazprom nikad nije odbio povećati opskrbu svojim potrošačima ako podnesu odgovarajuće ponude”.

No Neil Chapman, potpredsjednik ExxonMobila, naglašavao je kratkoročna ograničenja: “Naravno da postoji velika zabrinutost. U našoj industriji, koja je kapitalno intenzivna, ne možete samo uključiti opskrbu.”

Najbolji je scenarij, prema Burkhardu, da zima bude s prosječnim temperaturama, što bi omogućilo da pritisak popusti u drugom kvartalu 2022. godine. Međutim, loši vremenski uvjeti u nadolazećim mjesecima stvorili bi veliku napetost, osobito u zemljama koje se u velikoj mjeri oslanjaju na prirodni plin za proizvodnju energije, poput Italije i Velike Britanije. Britanija je u posebno teškom položaju jer joj nedostaju skladišni kapaciteti i mora se nositi s prekinutim dalekovodima prema Francuskoj.

“Velika Britanija je vjerojatno u najvećem riziku od nestašice tijekom zime među velikim europskim gospodarstvima. Ako se to dogodi, nacionalna vlada će vjerojatno zahtijevati od tvornica da smanje svoju proizvodnju, odnosno potrošnju plina kako bi osigurale opskrbu kućanstava”, rekao je Henning Gloystein iz konzultantske kompanije Eurasia Group.

Oporavak europskog gospodarstva nakon pandemije je u opasnosti

Veliki skok u troškovima energije, koji ne pokazuje znakove opadanja, raspiruje strah od inflacije, koji je već natjerao političare da pažljivo razmotre svoje sljedeće korake. Cijene energije u razvijenim zemljama u kolovozu su porasle za 18 posto, što je najveći porast od 2008. godine, prema podacima koje je u utorak objavila Organizacija za gospodarsku suradnju i razvoj (OECD). I to prije nego se situacija posljednjih tjedana značajno pogoršala. Veći računi za energiju mogli bi smanjiti potrošnju građana na odjeću ili aktivnosti poput izlaska u restorane, što bi naštetilo oporavku nakon pandemije. Ako se od poduzeća traži smanjenje aktivnosti radi očuvanja energije, to bi također moglo naštetiti gospodarstvu.

“Postoji zabrinutost da će poskupljenje plina dovesti u opasnost oporavak europskog gospodarstva nakon pandemije”, rekao je Gloystein.

Također postoji zabrinutost da bi nestabilnost cijena mogla potaknuti skepticizam javnosti o financiranju energetske tranzicije, smatra Gloystein, pogotovo ako potrošači budu zahtijevali veća ulaganja u naftu i plin kako bi spriječili buduće oscilacije. Vlade koje su se obvezale na smanjenje emisija preventivno pokušavaju poslati čvrstu poruku – ovo podupire, a ne potkopava, mogućnost ulaganja u veću mješavinu izvora energije.

“Jasna je potreba dugoročnog ulaganja u obnovljive izvore energije. To nam daje stabilne cijene i veću neovisnost, jer 90 posto plina uvozi se u Europsku uniju”, rekla je u srijedu predsjednica Europske komisije Ursula von der Leyen./HMS/

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