Delta soj se u Japanu samouništio? Peti val pandemije mnogo lakši
Peti val covida-19 u Japanu je završio toliko nevjerojatno brzo da su i neki znanstvenici ostali potpuno zbunjeni – dio njih sad čak sugerira da je vrlo zarazna delta varijanta virusa u toj državi mutirala sve do točke izumiranja.
Sredinom augusta Japan je bio na vrhuncu epidemije i bilježio je više od 23.000 novih slučajeva zaraze na dan. Sada se ta brojka vrti oko 170, a smrtni slučajevi koji se tijekom novembra pripisuju covidu uglavnom ostaju jednoznamenkasti.
Iako mnogi slabljenje zaraze pripisuju visokoj stopi procijepljenosti, masovnom nošenju zaštitnih maski i drugim čimbenicima, neki istraživači napominju kako druge zemlje sa sličnim uvjetima i epidemiološkim mjerama ipak nemaju ovako značajan pad koji se dogodio u Japanu.
Ituro Inoue iz Nacionalnog instituta za genetiku vjeruje kako je delta soj u Japanu uspio iskorijeniti druge varijante virusa SARS-CoV-2 prije nego što je i on sam nestao. Upravo Inoue i njegovi kolege već neko vrijeme istražuju mutacije SARS-CoV-2 i kako na njih utječe protein nsp14, koji je ključan za reprodukciju virusa.
Kako prenosi RT, RNA virusi, a među njima je i onaj koji uzrokuje covid-19, imaju vrlo visoku stopu mutacija, što im omogućuje da se brzo prilagode promjenama u okolišu. Međutim, to također otvara vrata gomilanju loših mutacija koje na kraju mogu uzrokovati i potpuno izumiranje soja. No čini se kako protein nsp14 uspješno izbjegava tu pogrešku pa genom virusa ostaje “ispod praga katastrofe”.
– Bili smo zbilja šokirani kad smo vidjeli nalaze. Delta varijanta u Japanu bila je vrlo prenosiva i uspješno je izbjegavala druge sojeve. Ali kako su se mutacije gomilale, vjerujemo da je na kraju upravo delta postala ‘neispravna‘ i više nije mogla napraviti kopije sebe same – rekao je znanstvenik, koji je od lipnja do listopada prikupljao uzorke kako bi izradio ovu studiju.
Ova nova teorija mogla bi biti relevantna i za prethodni soj SARS-a, koji je identificiran 2003. godine, no nije izazvao pandemiju. Ipak, to je i danas teško potvrditi jer je epidemija završila relativno brzo i nije rezultirala masivnim prikupljanjem genetskih podataka potrebnih za testiranje spomenute hipoteze.
I dalje nije jasno zašto je Japan imao ovako “sretan” razvoj događaja, pogotovo jer se ništa slično nije dogodilo u drugim istočnoazijskim zemljama poput Južne Koreje, gdje je stanovništvo genetski blisko japanskome.
– Mutacije virusa slične onima koje smo mi označili otkrivene su u najmanje 24 zemlje. Moj tim do kraja studenoga planira objaviti rad s detaljima svojih nalaza – rekao je Inoue.
– Čak i ako se ova teorija prirodnoga izumiranja potvrdi, to će u najboljem slučaju značiti samo privremenu odgodu za japanski narod. Novi, uspješniji sojevi vjerojatno će na kraju ipak pronaći svoj put u zemlju, iako bi karantenske mjere i kontrola useljavanja mogle odgoditi pojavu novih varijanti u Japanu – zaključio je Inoue.
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