Kriza u globalnom transportu robe postaje sve gora, cijene vrtoglavo rastu
Ogromna mreža luka, kontejnerskih brodova i transportnih kompanija koje prevoze robu širom svijeta jako je zapetljana, a troškovi dostave vrtoglavo rastu. To je zabrinjavajuća vijest za trgovce na malo i kupce za praznike.
Više od 18 mjeseci nakon pandemije, poremećaji u globalnim lancima opskrbe postaju sve gori, potičući nestašicu potrošačkih proizvoda i poskupljujući za kompanije isporuku robe tamo gdje im je potrebna.
Nerazriješeni zastoji i pojava novih problema, uključujući varijantu Delta virusa, znače da će se kupci ove blagdanske sezone vjerojatno suočiti s višim cijenama i manjim izborom. Kompanije kao što su Adidas (ADDDF), Crocs (CROX) i Hasbro (HAS) već upozoravaju na prekide u pripremama za ključno razdoblje na kraju godine.
Najnovija prepreka je u Kini, gdje je terminal u luci Ningbo-Zhoushan južno od Šangaja zatvoren od 11. augusta otkad je radnik pristaništa pozitivan na Covid-19. Velike međunarodne pomorske linije, uključujući Maersk (AMKBY), Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) i CMA CGM prilagodile su rasporede kako bi izbjegle luku i upozoravaju kupce na kašnjenja.
Djelomično zatvaranje treće najprometnije kontejnerske luke na svijetu remeti druge luke u Kini, rastežući lance snabdijevanja koji su već patili od nedavnih problema u luci Yantian, tekućih nestašica kontejnera, zatvaranja tvornica povezanih s koronavirusom u Vijetnamu i dugotrajnih posljedica blokade Sueckog kanala u martu.
Špedicije očekuju nastavak globalne krize. To masovno povećava troškove premještanja tereta i moglo bi povećati pritisak na rast potrošačkih cijena.
“Očekujemo da će se stanje na tržištu olakšati najranije u prvom tromjesečju 2022. godine”, rekao je nedavno izvršni direktor Hapag-Lloyda Rolf Habben Jansen.
Troškovi isporuke robe iz Kine u Sjevernu Ameriku i Evropu nastavili su rasti u posljednjih nekoliko mjeseci, nakon skoka početkom godine, pokazuju podaci londonske Drewry Shipping.
Svjetski indeks kontejnera kompanija pokazuje da su ukupni troškovi isporuke 40-metarskog kontejnera na osam glavnih ruta Istok-Zapad u sedmici do 19. augusta dosegli 9.613 dolara, što je 360 posto više nego prije godinu dana.
Najveći skok cijena zabilježen je na ruti od Šangaja do Rotterdama u Nizozemskoj, a cijena kontejnera od 40 stopa porasla je za 659 posto na 13.698 dolara. Skočile su i cijene kontejnerskog transporta na linijama od Šangaja do Los Angelesa i New Yorka.
“Trenutne historijski visoke stope vozarine uzrokovane su činjenicom da postoji nezadovoljena potražnja. Jednostavno nema dovoljno kapaciteta “, rekao je Soren Skou, izvršni direktor kontejnerskog giganta Maersk.
Zatvaranje terminala u Ningbu dodatno će povećati uska grla nastala zatvaranjem luke Yantian u junu, oko 50 milja sjeverno od Hong Konga, nakon što su među radnicima pristaništa otkrivene infekcije koronavirusom.
Iako je djelomično ponovno otvaranje Yantiana trajalo samo nekoliko dana, za povratak na uobičajene usluge trebalo je gotovo mjesec dana, prema S&P Global Market Intelligence Panjiva, dok se zagušenje prelilo u druge luke. To nanosi probleme trgovcima na malo i kompanijama za široku potrošnju koje pokušavaju obnoviti zalihe koje idu u ključnu sezonu prazničnih kupovina na kraju godine.
Oko 36 kontejnerskih brodova usidreno je u blizini susjednih luka Los Angelesa i Long Beacha, prema izvještaju od četvrtka iz Pomorske razmjene u južnoj Kaliforniji.
To je najveći broj od februara, kada je 40 kontejnerskih brodova čekalo na ulazak. Uobičajeno je da se na sidru nalazi samo jedan ili nula kontejnerskih brodova, prema Marine Exchange.
“Gužva u Kaliforniji počinje se širiti “gotovo u sve luke u Sjedinjenim Državama. Šanse da vaše plovilo stigne na vrijeme su oko 40 posto, dok je prošle godine bilo 80 posto”, rekao je za CNN Business Biesterfeld iz C.H. Robinson.
Zaostaci u lukama imat će utjecaj na zaglavljena skladišta i povećane kapacitete cesta i željeznica. Logističke mreže rade sa maksimalnim kapacitetima mjesecima, zahvaljujući poticajnoj potražnji koju vode američki potrošači i povećanju proizvodnje. Nedostatak vozača kamiona u Sjedinjenim Državama i Velikoj Britaniji samo je pogoršao prekide u opskrbi.
Proizvođači robe široke potrošnje poduzimaju drastične korake kako bi zadovoljili potražnju – poput promjene mjesta proizvodnje i premještanja avionom umjesto brodom – ali kompanije poput postolara Stevea Maddena (SHOO) kažu da im već nedostaje prodaja jer jednostavno nema dovoljno robe.
Izvršni direktor Adidasa Kasper Rorsted rekao je da kompanija za sportsku odjeću neće moći u potpunosti zadovoljiti “snažnu potražnju” za svojim proizvodima u drugoj polovici godine zbog gašenja, unatoč prebacivanju proizvodnje u druge regije.
Andrew Rees, izvršni direktor Crocsa, rekao je da su tranzitna vremena iz Azije na većinu vodećih tržišta kompanije približno dvostruko veća nego što su bila u prošlosti.
Kako bi se osigurala dostupnost proizvoda za vrijeme godišnjih odmora, Hasbro, koji proizvodi Monopoly i My Little Pony, rekao je da povećava broj okeanskih prijevoznika s kojima radi, koristeći više luka za ubrzavanje isporuka i nabavku više proizvoda ranije iz više zemalja.
Za potrošače, krah opskrbnog lanca vjerojatno će značiti više cijene. Hasbro, naprimjer, povećava cijene kako bi nadoknadio rastuće troškove prijevoza i robe. Kompanija predviđa da će njeni troškovi pomorskog transporta ove godine biti u prosjeku četiri četiri puta veći nego prošle, kaže glavna finansijska direktorica Deborah Thomas.
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