Lavrov želi pokazati Bajdenu da ne odustaju od utjecaja u BiH
Pažljivo odabran datum posjete, na godišnjicu Dejtona
Ruski šef diplomatije Sergej Lavrov najavio je dvodnevnu posjetu Bosni i Hercegovini 14. i 15. decembra ove godine. Lavrov je u BiHtrebao doći uoči lokalnih izbora, ali je zbog izolacije morao otkazati tadašnju posjetu.
Međutim, datum ove posjete pomno je odabran zbog činjenice da će baš 14. decembra biti obilježena 25. godišnjica potpisivanja Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma u Parizu. Lavrov na taj način direktno signalizira privrženost Dejtonu, ali na način kako ga vide u Moskvi, apsolutno drugačije u odnosu na ostale članice Vijeća za implementaciju mira.
Drugačije okolnosti
Posjeta najvažnijeg Putinovog čovjeka Bosni i Hercegovini se, kako saznajemo iz diplomatskih izvora, doživljava kao vrlo snažan pokušaj Moskve da promijenjenim geopolitičkim uvjetima pokaže da se neće tako lako odreći već postignutog nivoa utjecaja na Balkanu, a posebno u BiH.
– Lavrov je visoki ruski zvaničnik i činjenica da dolazi u BiH u ovakvim okolnostima, dok traje pandemija, govori da Moskva ne namjerava olako popustiti niti prepustiti svoj utjecaj nekom drugom. Ovaj datum i način realizacije posjete su poruka Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama i posebno Evropskoj uniji da Rusija ostaje međunarodni igrač u regiji – navodi naš izvor.
Poznato je da Rusija apsolutno na drugi način u odnosu na međunarodnu zajednicu, SAD, EU i druge svjetske sile gleda na Dejtonski sporazum te se protivi napretku BiH ka članstvu u Uniji i NATO-u.
– Rusija je bez sumnje zabrinuta ozbiljnim najavama iz Vašingtona da će nova administracija snažnije podržati integraciju BiH u evropsku i euroatlantsku zajednicu. Zbog toga Lavrov želi personalno poručiti rivalima da ima svoje igrače u BiH – navode naši izvori.
Partneri iz EU
Međutim, dobro upućeni izvori smatraju da, iako je evidentan ruski utjecaj u BiH, neće moći spriječiti eventualnu snažniju inicijativu Vašingtona. Izvjesnije je da će Rusi pokušati usporiti američku inicijativu preko partnera iz Evropske unije.
No, uprkos tome, posjeta ruskog zvaničnika, koja dolazi nakon posjete američkog državnog sekretara regiji i posjete evropskog šefa diplomatije BiH, ukazuje da veliki i važni svjetski zvaničnici zauzimaju pozicije uoči početka djelovanja nove američke administracije.
Međunarodna inicijativa na proljeće
Sve ovo su jasni signali da bi se već na proljeće naredne godine mogla očekivati velika međunarodna inicijativa za rješavanje preostalih pitanja u BiH, posebno u pogledu ustavne reforme. U tom pogledu, osim američke inicijative, bit će važna i uloga Brisela, ali i posredno Moskve.
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