Najneizvjesniji izbori dosad: SPD i CDU-CSU su na razlici koja se mjeri statističkom pogreškom
NJEMAČKA ODLUČUJE
Zbog rekordno velikog broja birača koji su glasali pismenim putem, prve procjene na temelju izlaznih anketa neće biti tako precizne
Posljednji dan predizborne kampanje potvrdio je da će rezultat izbora biti najneizvjesniji u povijesti. Prema nekim se anketama Unija, Kršćanski demokrati (CDU) i bavarska sestrinska stranka Kršćanski socijalisti (CSU) približila Socijaldemokratima (SPD) na statističku razliku.
Anketna turbulencija je dijelom posljedica izlaska Olafa Scholza, kancelarskog kandidata SPD-a pred parlamentarni odbor za financije gdje je morao odgovarati na pitanja o nepravilnostima u radu agencije za borbu protiv pranja novca. Unutar Ministarstva financija koje vodi Scholz. Određeni je utjecaj imao i ojačani angažman kancelarke na odlasku, Angele Merkel, koja je pozvala biračko tijelo da glasa za izuzetno nepopularnog Armina Lascheta, kancelarskog kandidata Unije.
“Da bi Njemačka ostala stabilna, Armin Laschet mora postati savezni kancelar”, rekla je gospođa Merkel na skupu svoje stranke u Münchenu. “Nije nevažno tko upravlja Njemačkom”, dodala je Merkel te upozorila kakav bi bio na scenarij ako pobijedi socijaldemokrat Olaf Scholz. “Možete li zamisliti crveno-crveno-zelenu vladu?”, pitala je? Riječ je o opciju koju Scholz nije odbacio, a podrazumijeva uvođenje radikalno lijeve stranke Die Linke (Ljevica) u vladu. Riječ je stranci koja se primarno veže uz stranku bivšeg režima u bivšoj Demokratskoj (što je nije bilo točno) Republici Njemačkoj (DDR, Istočna Njemačka). No, ta se stranka u međuvremenu stopila s frakcijom Oskara Lafontainea kad se odvojila od SPD-a.
Kancelarka je kritizirala povećanje poreza koje predviđa socijaldemokratski kandidat što bi moglo nagnati njemačke tvrtke da se presele u Austriju ili Nizozemsku. “To nije naša politika”, naglasila je kancelarka Merkel te dodala da preferira “politiku koja omogućuje tvrtkama da ostanu u zemlji i otvaraju radna mjesta – ovdje, kako bi Njemačka napredovala”.
Kancelarka je također upozorila na opasnost koju bi Njemačkoj donijelo uklanjanje “kočnice zaduživanja” (Die Schuldenbremse), a riječ je o sigurnosnoj kočnici koja je ugrađena u ustav i ograničava državno zaduženje te na opasnost “zadužene Europske unije” što bi se moglo dogoditi pobjedom ljevice. Jedna od zadaća “kočnice zaduživanja” je i uspostava “generacijske pravednosti” po kojoj se treba izbjegavati ostavljanje dugova generacijama koje slijede.
Na posljednjem televizijskom sučeljavanju sudjelovali su kancelarski kandidati svih stranaka. Većina predstavnika stranaka s izuzetkom Ljevice i radikalno desne Alternative za Njemačku (AfD(), izjasnila se za jačanje uloge Njemačke i Europske unije kada su u pitanju međunarodne vojne misije, ali istodobno su i za jačanje transatlantskih odnosa.
“Trebamo jaku EU”
“Mi se moramo pobrinuti za to da se europski glas čuje jače na globalnoj razini. Potrebna nam je jaka Europska unija, bez nje ne igramo nikakvu ulogu”, rekao je Olaf Scholz.
Alice Weidel iz AfD-a je kritizirala je njemačku klimatsku politiku, posebice odustajanje od atomske energije što, po njezinu mišljenju, šteti Njemačkoj. To je jedno od osjetljivih pitanja budući da je Angela Merkel krenula u gašenje nuklearnih elektrana. S druge strane, Francuska se i dalje kani oslanjati na taj izvor energije u zelenoj tranziciji.
Christian Lindner, predsjednik liberala (FDP), opet je zaigrao na kartu koalicije s Unijom navodeći da je to opcija kojoj je sklona stranka. U toj bi opciji, koja je realna, Lindner tražio položaj ministra financija. CSU, čiji čelnik Markus Söder ima ambicije preuzeti vodeće mjesto u Uniji, odbija ideju sklapanja vladine koalicije ako ne budu pobjednička stranka. CDU je toj opciji sklon.
Najviše glasova poštom
Osim potpune neizvjesnosti do samoga kraja ovi izbori su još po nečemu novina: po prvi put u poslijeratnoj povijesti Njemačke aktualni kancelar, odnosno kancelarka, više se ne kandidira. Angela Merkel se nakon 16 godina na čelu zemlje povlači s političke scene, što je najavila još prije gotovo dvije godine.
Još je nešto novo na ovim izborima: zbog rekordno velikog broja birača, 40 posto, koji su glasali pismenim putem, prve procjene na temelju izlaznih anketa, koje su proteklih godina vrlo precizno predvidjele izborne rezultate, ove godine možda neće biti tako precizne kako su najavili predstavnici instituta za ispitivanje javnog mnijenja. Udio poštanskih glasova dramatično je porastao s vremenom, s manje od pet posto na 28,6 posto 2017.
Još jedan aspekt ove izbore čini dodatno napetim i neizvjesnim do samoga kraja: prema gotovo svim ispitivanjima čak 35 posto onih koji su dali odgovor za koga će glasati izjavilo je kako još nisu u potpunosti sigurni hoće li u nedjelju zaista zaokružiti stranku za koju su se izjasnili u ispitivanju.
Na izborima se natječe ukupno 47 stranaka, uključujući „Stranku za promjene, vegetarijance i vegane” te „Hip-hop stranku”. Prag za ulazak u njemački parlament, Bundestag, od 5% je za većinu nepremostiva prepreka. Novi bi saziv, prema anketama, trebao imati sigurno šest stranaka – CDU, CSU, SPD, Zeleni, FDP i AfD. Die Linke se nalazi na rubu prolaska.
Savezni ured za statistiku procjenjuje da oko 60,4 milijuna Nijemaca ima pravo glasa – 31,2 milijuna žena i 29,2 milijuna muškaraca. Većina birača (12,8 milijuna) dolazi iz velike industrijske države Sjeverne Rajne-Vestfalije na zapadu zemlje, a slijedi Bavarska na jugu s 9,4 milijuna birača. Oko 2,8 milijuna ljudi glasa prvi put na izborima za Bundestag.
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