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Prognoza Nedima Sladića: Samo čekajte da ugrije, poželjet ćete da što prije prestane grijati

Gradacacki Glas

April je skoro čista kopija 2021, a ima velike sličnosti i sa 2012. godinom, naveo je on

Bh. meteorolog Nedim Sladić uporedio je promjene vremena koje su se dogodile u martu i aprilu. Kako navodi u svojoj analizi, mart 2022. je temperaturnim hodom i padavinama identičan onim iz 2000., 2012. pa djelomično i 2021. godine.

Mrazni dani

Veliki broj mraznih dana u ovom martu u Sarajevu (a bilo ih je 22) ima i mart 2000. godine (njih 17), za petnaestak manje 2012. (7 dana). April je skoro čista kopija 2021., a ima velike sličnosti i sa 2012. godinom. Zanimljivo je da su sve navedene godine bile proljeća sa La Nina fazom. 

U poklapanju je i NAO faza koja je također i u 2012. i 2021. iz pozitvne martovske vrijednosti u aprilu išla ka negativnoj, a s kojom i povezujemo spuštanje hladne zračne mase polarnog porijekla znatno južnije. Kada se iscrtaju kompoziti geopotencijalnih anomalija na 500 hPa – trenutni period je identičan 2021. i 2012. godini.

Od maja zavisi uveliko i razvoj ljeta nad Balkanom i na osnovu nje dobit ćemo najsličniji mogući scenario. Suha podloga idealna je za dugotrajnije održavanje anticiklone, a samim tim i dugotrajnije i izraženije toplotne valove. 

– Kako bismo to izbjegli, dobro je da imamo barem kakve-takve infuzije koje mogu kratkoročno pomoći, s obzirom da poslije petka i ove kratke kišne epizode u Hercegovini konkretnijih padavina nema, a u ovo doba godine primat preuzima prostorna neujednačenost padavina usljed njene izražene lokalnosti i pljuskovitog karaktera. Žargonski rečeno, tada se kiša svodi pod onu – koga potrefi, potrefilo je – navodi Sladić.

Sezonske prognoze za ljeto

Prisjetimo se da je ljeto 2012. najtoplije bosanskohercegovačko ljeto otkako je mjerenja, a 2021. među pet najtoplijih.

Negativno odstupanje temperature zraka, pa povremeno i ono značajnije ovog proljeća će se naplatiti u mjesecima koje dolaze, i to po običaju zadnjih godina vrlo žestoko i, kako u žargonu to kažemo, “s zateznim kamatama”.

Istina, hladno je bilo, povremeno i neprimjereno za doba godine u kojem se nalazimo i to je neosporiva činjenica. Ali vjerujte mi, teško nam se kada se Afrika promoli nosom preko Mediterana i protegne svoj vreli jezik k nama. Samo čekajte da ugrije, pa da vidite kako ćete poželjeti da što prije prestane grijati.

Sezonske prognoze za ljeto 2022. su zasad prilično orijentisane ka vrućini i deficitu padavina, ali ipak sačekajmo maj kada ćemo biti puno pametniji.

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