Stigla prognoza za ljeto, očekuje nas preko 65 vrelih dana
VREMENSKA PROGNOZA
Najveća temperaturna odstupanja u odnosu na referentni niz očekuju se sredinom jula i početkom augusta
Dostupni prognostički materijali evropskih i svjetskih centara za dugoročnu prognozu pokazuju da se u narednom ljetnom periodu (juni, juli i august) na prostoru Bosne i Hercegovine prognozira toplije do znatno toplije u odnosu na prosječnu temperaturu u periodu 1981-2010 godine, uz umjerenu vjerovatnoću prognoze od 50%, piše u prognozi Federalnog hidrometeorološkog zavoda..
Najveća temperaturna odstupanja u odnosu na referentni niz očekuju se sredinom jula i početkom augusta.
U poređenju sa istim periodom prošle godine, ljeto 2021. godine trebalo bi biti malo svježije. Iako se tokom ljeta očekuju veće prosječne temperature zraka, u navedenom periodu pored toplotnih talasa nisu isključeni kraći periodi sa prodorima svježijih zračnih masa.
Broj očekivanih vrelih dana u Bosni tokom ljeta veći je od 241, a na području južne Hercegovine prognozira se preko 65 vrelih dana.
Dostupni modeli za ukupnu količinu padavina ne preferiraju ni jedan mogući scenarij. Signal za padavine tokom ljeta nije izražen za širi prostor Balkana. Napominjemo da prognoza padavina za dugo vremensko razdoblje nije pouzdana u toj mjeri kao prognoza temperature zraka. Raspored očekivanih padavina tokom ljeta bit će naujednačen, s najmanjom količinom u julu. Ukupna količina padavina moguće da budu kao i na ljeto 2020. godine. Vjerovatnoća
1 Prosječan broj vrelih dana tokom ljeta: Sarajevo 24, Tuzla 28, Bihać 27, Mostar 59
ostvarenja prognoze je mala (oko 33%).
Tokom ljeta usljed jakih konvektivnih aktivnosti moguća su kraća razdoblja sa izraženijim pljuskovitim padavinama praćeni grmljavinskim nevremenom i gradom, stoji u prognozi FHMZ.
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