VELIKA BBC-JEVA ANALIZA
‘Ovo je početak kraja!
‘Ovo je početak kraja! Vrlo brzo bacamo maske, ukidamo testiranje i sve mjere. Evo kako ćemo ubuduće živjeti s covidom‘
Bolest prelazi u endemsku fazu, cijepljenje će ubuduće biti nužno samo za najugroženije, a paralelna pojava gripe i covida neće nužno biti strašna.
Ima li ikoga tko u zadnje dvije godine još nije postavio pitanje ‘Je li pandemija konačno gotova?’ ili ‘Kada ćemo konačno moći nastaviti normalno živjeti?’. Tako započinje velika analiza BBC-jevog novinara specijaliziranog za zdravstvene i znanstvene teme Jamesa Gallaghera koji odmah navodi da je on postavio oba spomenuta pitanja pa nastavlja da bi odgovor na njih mogao biti isti: ‘Vrlo skoro’.
Sve je snažnije uvjerenje da omikron Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo gura prema samoj završnici pandemije. Ali, što slijedi nakon toga? Neće se dogoditi da netko pucne prstima i da virus zatim nestane. Umjesto toga, morat ćemo se naviknuti na novu sveprisutnu riječ – ‘endemski’, što zapravo znači da covid definitivno ostaje s nama.
Jesmo li, dakle, doista na pragu nove ere covida i što će to značiti za naše živote?
– Gotovo da smo tamo, ovo sada je početak kraja, barem u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu, smatra profesor Julian Hiscox, šef katedre za infektivne bolesti i globalno zdravlje na Sveučilištu u Liverpoolu.
– Mislim da će nam se životi tijekom 2022. gotovo u potpunosti vratiti u pretpandemijsko vrijeme, dodaje.
Ono što se mijenja je naš imunitet. Novi koronavirus pojavio se prije dvije godine u kineskom Wuhanu i tada smo bili ranjivi. Bio je to potpuno nov virus s kojim naši imunološki sustavi nisu imali dodira, a nismo imali ni cjepiva ni lijekova koji bi mogli pomoći u borbi s njim. Posljedica je bila kao da je netko pucao iz bacača plamena u tvornici pirotehnike. Covid se svijetom proširio eksplozivno, ali požar koji je izazvao ne može gorjeti istim intenzitetom vječno.
Od početka su postojale dvije opcije – ili ćemo istrijebiti covid, kao što se učinilo s ebolom u zapadnoj Africi, ili će se sam primiriti, ali ostati s nama dugoročno i pridružiti se čitavom nizu endemskih zaraza – od obične prehlade preko HIV-a, ospica i malarije do tuberkuloze – koje su uvijek prisutne.
Neizbježna opcija
Za mnoge se ova druga opcija – s obzirom da je riječ o virusu koji se širi zrakom, i to i prije nego se kod zaraženih pojave simptomi – od početka činila neizbježnom.
– Endemičnost je ugravirana u ovaj virus, kaže dr. Elisabetta Groppelli, virologinja sa Sveučilišta u Londonu St. George.
– Vrlo sam optimistična. Uskoro ćemo biti u situaciji u kojoj virus cirkulira, a pritom vodimo brigu o zaštiti najugroženijih, dok ćemo za sve ostale prihvatiti da će se zaraziti. Prosječnoj osobi neće se dogoditi ništa, pojasnila je dr. Groppelli.
Epidemiolozi neku zarazu najčešće smatraju endemskom kada je njezino širenje konzistentno i predvidljivo, a da nema iznenadnih eksplozija ‘slučajeva’ kakve smo gledali u raznim valovima ove pandemije. No, profesorica Azra Ghani, epidemiologinja s londonkog Imperial Collegea, kaže da drugi ljudi koristeći izraz ‘endemski’ misle na život s covidom, ali bez restrikcija. Ona smatra da ćemo do toga doći ‘iznimno brzo’.
– Čini se da je dugo trebalo do ove faze, ali prošlo je samo godinu dana od početka vakcinacije, a već smo i zbog toga slobodniji nego prije, kaže Ghani.
Jedino što bi moglo poremetiti ovakav razvoj situacije je pojava neke nove varijante koronavirusa koja bi mogla preuzeti dominaciju nad omikronom i pritom izazivati značajno teže kliničke slike.
Važno je reći, napominje Ghani, da ako je zaraza endemska to ne znači nužno da je bolest blaga.
– Imamo nekih stvarno opakih ubojitih zaraznih bolesti koje smatramo endemskima. Boginje su bile endemske tisućljećima, ali svejedno su ubile trećinu svih zaraženih. Malarija je endemska pa svake godine izazove 600.000 smrtnih slučajeva, pojašnjava Ghani.
Manje smrtonosan
Kada je riječ o covidu, već su vidljivi znakovi da on postaje manje smrtonosan s protekom vremena tijekom kojega se ljudski organizmi ‘upoznaju’ s koronavirusom i ‘uče’ kako se boriti s njime. U Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu građanima je ponuđeno cjepivo, uključujući i booster dozu, a kroz populaciju su prošli valovi četiriju različitih varijanti istog virusa.
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