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NAKON PANDEMIJE: SPREMA NAM SE SKOK CIJENA KAKAV NISMO VIDJELI ZA ŽIVOTA

Smirivanje pandemije koronavirusa koje cijeli svijet željno iščekuje posljednji je komadić makroekonomske slagalice koja će postaviti temelj za skok cijena sirovina kakav nije viđen već najmanje jedno desetljeće, smatraju inozemni ekonomisti.

Kako piše Financial Times, prije 10 godina tržište sirovina – željezne rudače, bakra, nafte, pšenice ili kukuruza – doseglo je vrhunac “superciklusa” kako se trgovac sirovinama Glencore pripremao za izlazak na Londonsku berzu vrijedan 60 milijardi dolara.

Desetljeće kasnije izraženi uspon cijena ključnih sirovina oživio je procjene o dolasku “strukturnog bikovskog tržišta” s obzirom na snažnu potražnju kineskog gospodarstva koje se od koronakrize već praktički oporavilo, zatim goleme fiskalne poticaje razvijenih država namijenjenih oporavku te trendu “zazelenjavanja” privrede.

  • Ako ćemo vidjeti relativno brzo smirivanje epidemiološke situacije u Indiji, tada će se posložiti makroekonomski okvir kakav nismo vidjeli za našega života – ocjenjuje Saad Rahim, glavni ekonomist Trafigure, jednog od najvećih svjetskih neovisnih trgovaca sirovinama.

Za sada je situacija u Indiji još daleko od smirivanja. Ta je država u ponedjeljak registrirala više od 300.000 novozaraženih koronavirusom, već 12. dan zaredom. Ukupno je 19,93 miliona zaraženih, a ukupni broj umrlih od COVID-19 iznosi 218.959, prema podacima ministarstva zdravstva. No, zdravstveni stručnjaci kažu da stvarni broj širom zemlje od 1,35 milijardu ljudi može biti do 10 puta veći od službenih podataka.

Unatoč tome, cijene nekih sirovina na rekordnim su razinama. Protekle sedmice cijene željezne rudače – ključne sirovine u proizvodnji čelika – pa paladija koji se koristi u automobilskim katalizatorima za pročišćavanje ispušnih plinova te drveta dosegle su najviše razine u povijesti. Poskupjele su i poljoprivredne sirovine, poput žita, suncokretovih sjemenki, šećerne repe i mlijeka, a cijene kukuruza sa 7 dolara za bušel najviše su u osam godina. Na osmogodišnjem maksimumu su i cijene soje. Istovremeno, bakrom – najznačajnijim industrijskim metalom – trenutno se trguje iznad 10.000 dolara po toni, prvi put nakon 2011. godine.

Uspon cjelokupnog tržišta najbolje oslikava kretanje indeksa S&P GSCI koji prati kretanje cijena 24 sirovine, a za ovu godinu bilježi rast od 21 posto. Ovakvi trendovi privući će investitore kojima su sirovine posljednjih 10-ak godina bile na margini ulagačkog interesa, s obzirom na predviđanja o novom “superciklusu”, odnosno produženom razdoblju visokih cijena zbog potražnje koja nadmašuje ponudu. Tržište također privlači i podršku fond menadžera koji traže imovinu koja će profitirati od ubrzanja oporavka globalnog gospodarstva, a može ujedno poslužiti i kao štit od inflacije.

  • Predsjednik Biden sada je predložio još dva plana poticaja uz jedan već odobren. Ako bilo što od toga prođe, dodatno će potaknuti cijelo tržište. Ovo je tek početak – smatra Saad Rahim.

Brzi oporavak Kine – i dalje najvećeg potrošača sirovina – te ubrzanje oporavka gospodarstava Europe i SAD-a dolili su “ulje na vatru”. “Ne znam jesmo li ikada prije vidjeli ovako nešto”, kaže Ulf Larsson, izvršni direktor švedske kompanije za preradu drveta SCA. Kompanija je prošli tjedan objavila rast neto dobiti u prvom tromjesečju od 66 posto. Materijali koji se koriste u proizvodnji električnih vozila i baterija također su znatno traženi. Potražnja iz Kine više je nego udvostručila cijene litij karbonata i litij hidroksida tijekom ove godine, čime je prekinut trogodišnji trend pada cijena.
za tonu dosegla je cijena bakra, što je najviša vrijednost od 2011. godine

Cijene rijetkih metala koji se koriste i proizvodnji električnih motora skočila su za 40 posto, kao i vrijednost kobalta, neizostavnog materijala za baterije.

  • Imate superciklus u sirovinama za električna vozila, a povrh toga dodajte superciklus u industrijskim sirovinama i imate san svih rudarskih kompanija – komentirao je Simon Moores, direktor konzultantske tvrtke Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

No, rastu i sirovine koje se koriste u proizvodnji klasičnih automobila s benzinskim motorima. Cijena paladija u petak je porasla na rekordnih 3000 dolara za uncu na krilima strožih standarda emisija ispušnih plinova u Europi i Kini.

Od početka godine oporavile su i cijene nafte, dosegnuvši predpandemijskih 65 dolara za barel. Analitičari Goldman Sachsa očekuju da će nafta dosegnuti 80 dolara za barel tijekom drugog polugodišta, upozorivši da bi se mogao dogoditi veliki manjak ponude tijekom ljeta kako procjepljivanje bude ubrzavalo.

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