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Novalić: Trebat će nam 15 do 18 mjeseci da se vratimo

Premijer FBiH Fadil Novalić izjavio je danas u Sarajevu da je Vlada FBiH na današnjoj sjednici usvojila Program ekonomske stabilizacije i oporavka Federacije 2020. – 2021.

“Program je sastavljen od kombinacije različitih mjera koje je neophodno provesti kako bi došlo do željenog ekonomskog oporavka, odnosno da bismo se vratili na nivo ekonomskog rasta od prije pandemije, te da bi bili stvoreni neophodni preduvjeti za održiv i ubrzan ekonomski rast. Ovaj dokument, između ostalog, predviđa i daljnje jačanje danas uspostavljenog Garantnog fonda”, istakao je Novalić.

Precizirao je da će po procjenama stranih i domaćih institucija pad BDP-a u Federaciji, pa i u BiH, iznositi između 3,2 i pet posto.

“Kada u razmatranje uzmemo projektovani rast realnog BDP-a za ovu godinu, od prije ovih dešavanja, koji se trebao kretati na nivou od oko 2,8 posto, onda govorimo o padu ekonomske aktivnosti od šest pa do nekih 7,8 posto”, dodao je Novalić.

Naveo je da je za potrebe tog dokumenta napravljeno mnogo simulacija, a kao osnov je korištena simulacija BDP-a prema rashodovnom principu, za koji smatraju da je optimalan u datom slučaju.

“Mi smo sebi zadali ključne ciljeve koje želimo postići kroz niz mjera i to: očuvati radna mjesta kroz stabilizaciju i stimulisanje ekonomskog oporavka, održati fiskalnu stabilnosti što podrazumijeva penzije, invalidnine i druge budžetske transfere, podržati izvoz, reformisati javna preduzeća, održati makroekonomsku stabilnost, jačati zdravstveni sektor, sistem socijalne zaštite i zaštitu od gubitka posla, te ubrzati provedbu javnih investicija”, naglasio je Novalić.

Rekao je da su kroz Program definisane mjere iz sfere fiskalne politike, aktivne mjere zapošljavanja, kao i mjere u okviru finansijskog sektora, među kojima je uspostava i jačanje Garantnog fonda.

Novalić je dodao da će kreditna sredstva iz tog fonda kroz odgovarajuće programe privrednim subjektima omugućiti finansiranje tekuće likvidnosti, nabavku neophodnih obrtnih sredstava, dovršavanje već započetih investicija, te pokretanje investicija manjeg obima.

“Garantni fond Vlada uspostavlja pri Razvojnoj banci koja će, u ime i za račun Federacije, davati garancije prema komercijalnim bankama, za sve firme u ciljanim sektorima, a posebno one čije su djelatnosti okarakterisane kao strateški sektori razvoja. Za početak ćemo osigurati 100 miliona KM svojih sredstava, što će predstavljati garantni potencijal od 500 miliona KM. To bi trebalo ohrabriti banke da pojačaju kreditiranje privrede s kreditnim potencijalom od jedne milijarde KM”, kazao je Novalić.

Također, naveo je da četvrti set mjera ima za cilj unaprjeđenje poslovnog ambijenta, povećanje stepena konkurentnosti privrede i povećanje otpornosti ekonomije, a peti ubrzanu aktivaciju javnih investicija.

Novalić smatra da će kombinacija javne potrošnje, javnih investicija koje treba pratiti privatna potrošnja, omogućiti povratak na nivo rasta ekonomije od prije proglašenja pandemije.

“Situacija i nije tako pesimistična jer svaka kriza ujedno predstavlja i šansu, tako da ovaj period možemo iskoristiti da uradimo neke stvari koje će nam osigurati dugoročnu stabilnost i željeni ekonomski rast. Globalni lanci snabdijevanja su poremećeni. Mnoge firme iz razvijenih zemalja upravo će tražiti alternativne lance snabdijevanja i tu je velika šansa zapadnog Balkana, a samim tim i naše zemlje”, tvrdi Novalić.

Po njegovim riječima, ukoliko sve predloženo bude sinhronizovano provođeno očekuje se da bi za 15 do 18 mjeseci mogli vratiti na nivo ekonomskog rasta od prije proglašenja pandemije, odnosno nivo iz februara ove godine.

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