Očekuju nas obilne padavine i vrlo moguće poplave!
Kako najavljuju meteorolozi prognozni modeli u novijim izlazima crtaju povećanje padavinskih suma, a u pojedinim izlazima i izuzetno velike, abnormalno visoke totale za narednih 7 do 10 dana.
Već postoji neki trend jer peti dan zaredom modeli drže se približno slične priče, uz oscilacije vidljive u putanji same ciklone, pri čemu se, kao zajednički sadržilac, izdvajaju obilne količine padavina koje se pomjeraju iz izlaza u izlaz malo istočnije ili zapadnije u odnosu na postavku ciklone. Nakon pet dana i svih izračuna modela sada već se može reći da poplave nisu upitne, već nažalost gotovo pa posve sigurne sa ovakvim izračunima i trebali bismo ih se pribojavati iduće sedmice sa pojavom obilnijih padavina, naročito u periodu od 12. do 16. maja.
Jedan takav abnormalan scenario imamo upravo noćas. GFS prognozni model je izbacio veoma zabrinjavajući izračun u kojem bi, ukoliko je on tačan, pojedina područja Bosne i Hercegovine mogla primiti i preko 200 mm padavina iduće sedmice. Modeli uporno danima u većini izračuna najavljuju tu nepovoljnu situaciju po nas – kretanje ciklone duž Jadrana preko Grčke, uz stvaranje nepredvidive visinske ciklone koja ide potom sjevernijom trasom preko istoka Balkana.
VREMENSKA PROGNOZA ZA ZAPADNI BALKAN
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