Trougao Moskva – Beograd – Budimpešta: Zašto su Oružane snage meta drmanja državnih temelja BiH
Dodikova tri scenarija u vezi sa Oružanim snagama Bosne i Hercegovine idu ka smanjenju trenutnog sastava Oružanih snaga za polovinu. Ako to ne bude usvojeno, Narodna skupština RS-a (NSRS) će krenuti u formiranje vojske Republike Srpske ili će proglasiti Republiku Srpsku demilitarizovanom republikom. Ovakva politička igra oko Oružanih snaga BiH ima za cilj umanjenje njihove borbene gotovosti i spremnosti – upozorava vojni analitičar Nedžad Ahatović.
O tri scenarija član Predsjedništva BiH Milorad Dodik govorio je u intervjuu za The Guardian, te najavio 10. decembra održavanje posebne sjednice Narodne skupštine RS-a na kojoj bi trebala biti izglasana saglasnost za povlačenje ovog entiteta iz Oružanih snaga BiH.
Ahatović kaže da “isticanjem različitih pogleda na OSBiH, njenih slabosti i neorganiziranosti kompletnog odbrambenog sektora u Bosni i Hercegovini posebno se ciljaju pripadnici Oružanih snaga srpske nacionalnosti, čime se namjerno podriva ukupna politička, ekonomska i sigurnosna stabilnost BiH”.
– Priča o demilitarizaciji ne samo RS-a već i BiH uvjetovana je pričom o demilitarizaciji regije i ona se tu i završava. Naoružanje i ljudstvo u Oružanim snagama BiH, Crnoj Gori, Hrvatskoj i Srbiji regulirano je Bečkim sporazumom o subregionalnoj kontroli naoružanja iz 1996. godine. Taj dokument se bavi maksimumima u nabavci oružja i brojnosti ljudi, a ne njihovim minimumima. Tako da priča o smanjivanju OSBiH ne može biti realizirana zbog međunarodnih obaveza koje država BiH ima prema tom sporazumu i drugim usvojenim sporazumima sa NATO-om, vojno strateškim dokumentima i Zakonu o odbrani i služenju u OSBiH – podsjeća Ahatović u razgovoru za Faktor.
Što se tiče formiranja neke nove paravojne formacije koja bi slijedila tradiciju tzv. VRS, pojašnjava dalje on, u Srbiji se na forumima vrti nekoliko varijanti koje se zasnivaju na konceptu tri pješadijske brigade (Krajiška, Drinska i Hercegovačka), bataljon logistike, bataljon inženjerije i brigada RV i PVO-a.
– Bataljon logistike sa sjedištem u Doboju, bataljon inženjerije u Prijedoru, glavni garnizoni Banja Luka, Bijeljina i Trebinje. Akcenat je na Drinskoj brigadi sa sjedištem u Bijeljini kojoj bi se pridodavali specijalni sastavi MUP-a radi zauzimanja Brčko distrikta. Dakle, otprilike 3.500 pripadnika aktivnog i 10.000 pripadnika rezervnog sastava sa četiri do 4.500 pripadnika MUP-a RS-a. Sva nedostajuća oprema bila bi nabavljena i donirana iz Rusije, Kine i Srbije – pojašnjava Ahatović.
Sva tri scenarija, ističe dalje ovaj vojni analitičar, predstavljaju diskontinuitet u politici koju su politički predstavnici RS-a imali u pogledu sektora odbrane.
– U martu 2003. godine Predsjedništvo Bosne i Hercegovine je jasno izrazilo opredjeljenje za uključenje BiH u evropske i evroatlantske integracije i NATO program Partnerstvo za mir, kao i za provedbu potrebnih reformi odbrambenog sistema i reorganizacije Oružanih snaga. Odluku je potpisao tadašnji predsjedavajući Predsjedništva BiH Borislav Paravac. Tim slijedom nakon provedene reforme odbrane u BiH, 14. decembra 2006. godine tadašnji predsjedavajući Predsjedništva BiH Nebojša Radmanović u sjedištu NATO-a potpisuje sporazum za pristupanje u program Partnerstvo za mir. Tada je istakao svoje mišljenje da će BiH do 2009. godine biti članica NATO-a. Danas, Dodikovi mentori u Beogradu, Moskvi i Pekingu idu na disoluciju zemlje kako bi svako iz svojih interesa spriječili dalje napredovanje BiH ka NATO-u – upozorava on te zaključuje:
– Iskreno, bez obzira na to da li iza mojih leđa stajao Putin ili Xi Jinping, kao što se Dodik pohvalio u intervjuu u britanskoj utjecajnoj novini The Guardian, ja nešto ne bih, što bi rekli u Bosni bez velika zora, testirao spremnost i borbenu gotovost Oružanih snaga BiH. Bez obzira na etničke razlike, vojnu inferiornost u smislu savremene opreme i jače materijalne baze, Oružane snage BiH imaju visok nivo profesionalnosti i obučenosti koji se temelje na borbenom iskustvu oficirskog i podoficirskog sastava. Zato i jesu meta u drmanju državnih temelja BiH koje se radi prvenstveno iz Beograda, Moskve i Budimpešte. Naprosto, OSBiH su velika prepreka nasilnim akcijama kod vraćanja nadležnosti koje su najavljene u paljanskoj deklaraciji SNSD-a i zato ih je potrebno dovesti u pitanje.
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